The Truth About A/B Tests

Black Friday Incrementality: How to Separate Real Lift from the Calendar

Black Friday incrementality is the share of peak-season revenue your marketing caused, as opposed to what the calendar would have delivered anyway. Platform dashboards credit media for baseline demand, existing purchase intent, and discount-driven sales. Geo holdout tests separate those by comparing regions with and without spend. This guide covers when to test, how to […]

Holiday Ad Spend: How to Find Where Returns Start to Fall

Holiday ad spend stops being effective when a channel’s marginal ROAS (the return on the next dollar spent) drops below breakeven. With a 40% contribution margin, breakeven is 2.5x, meaning each new dollar needs to bring in $2.50 in extra revenue to cover its cost. In Q4, higher CPMs, more competition, and audience fatigue can […]

How Quicken Achieved a 19% Revenue Lift with Forecast-Led MMM Planning

Discover how Quicken used forecast-led planning to justify an aggressive year-end budget increase and deliver a 19% revenue lift while holding iROAS steady. Business Challenge Quicken faced the challenge of justifying a significant year-end increase in its marketing budget without a data-driven forecast to support it internally. In late 2023, a competitor’s exit provided a […]