Here’s what we’re seeing in the early data as advertisers set their Q4 strategy.
1. Momentum Is Softer, but Growth Is Still Positive
Sales are still rising year-over-year at a modest 3% on average, but 2 out of 3 brands are growing at a slower pace closing out Q3 than they were earlier in the year. The bright spots, apparel, fashion, and footwear, continue to post solid gains, hinting that discretionary spending hasn’t disappeared, just shifted later in the season.
Momentum is about pace, not direction. The market is still expanding; it’s just not accelerating on its own. That means paid media has to create urgency, not ride it. The brands that pull ahead will be the ones using precision, not volume, to drive conversion.
2. Meta’s Rebound and the Case for Smarter Prospecting
Meta is back in motion. After a slower start to the year, advertisers ramped up spending into late Q3, driven by renewed confidence and broader release of the Advantage+ campaign workflow. It’s more flexible, gives advertisers more control, and better aligned with how teams actually optimize. Spend is up 11% year over year in August & September after being down 9% year over year through July.
We’re seeing more brands test refined prospecting setups that exclude existing or engaged users to isolate new-customer impact. Note: this can lift CPAs, but when the goal is proving incrementality, our clients express that trade-off is well worth it.
And every advertiser knows what’s coming: holiday auction pressure. Last year, Meta CPMs climbed about on average 30 percent between early fall and peak season. A similar pattern is likely again this year. LiftLab’s optimization and forecasting tools already account for this increase, helping teams budget ahead of the curve instead of reacting to it.
3. CTV Keeps Rising as the Line Between Screens Blurs
Connected TV continues to gain share while linear TV and print keep easing down. The reason isn’t just reach; it’s control. Advertisers are trading static buys for flexible placements, evolving ad products, and a more cohesive journey from TV to mobile. We’re seeing CTV spend more than double thus far in 2025.
Unlike most channels, CTV inventory has historically become cheaper during the holidays. Last year, CPMs were about 10 to 15 percent lower than the rest of the year. That pricing tailwind, combined with better targeting tech and cross-device measurement, is fueling CTV’s momentum. It’s become one of the more dependable levers heading into the holidays.
4. TikTok Hit Pause After a Strong Start
TikTok’s year has been split in two. The first half saw rapid growth (+40% from last year), followed by a 36% pullback in Q3. Some of that slowdown followed the near-ban headlines in May and recent chatter about a possible sale, which gave brands a reason to hold steady.
There’s also a structural story here. Short-form video has matured. Platforms like Reels and Shorts have closed much of the gap, and advertisers can now reach the same audiences in multiple ecosystems.
Even so, TikTok hasn’t lost its spark. It still shapes culture faster than anyone else. The open question is whether it can convert that cultural capital into measurable incremental lift as we move deeper into the retail window.
5. Google Stays Steady and Strategic
Google remains the largest platform by spend for most LiftLab advertisers, on average representing a third of the media mix. It’s showing the least volatility. This isn’t stagnation; it’s discipline. Brands are holding steady on overall investment but quietly adjusting within Google’s ecosystem, shifting between Search, Shopping, and Performance Max, or fine-tuning Brand versus Non-Brand ratios based on what their models show about marginal efficiency.
CPCs typically rise during the holidays, and last year was no exception, seeing an average 13% increase in cost to end the year. Those increases were met with sharper optimization, not reactionary cuts. The patterns suggest brands are becoming more data-driven in how they respond, relying on modeled insights rather than instinct.
We’ll aim to explore these within-Google shifts in a future post. For now, the takeaway is simple: stability doesn’t mean stillness. It means control.
What’s Next
Everything here comes from observed spend and cost data, not modeled outcomes. That makes this a clear, unfiltered view of where advertisers are leaning before the real holiday acceleration begins.
Next, we’ll bring in LiftLab’s modeled insights to uncover which of these shifts actually drove incremental sales, where budgets delivered lift, and where brands can push harder in 2026.
For now, the message is clear: the season has started, the signals are emerging, and the smartest marketers are already adapting.
