Japan is the first market to see PCs shrink
An interesting read in the SF Gate: this article about the decline of PC in Japan by Hiroko Tabuchi. Some excerpts I found pertinent:
“The PC’s role in Japanese homes is diminishing, as its once-awesome monopoly on processing power is encroached by gadgets such as smart phones that act like pocket-size computers, advanced Internet-connected game consoles, and digital video recorders with terabytes of memory.
(…)
Japan’s PC market is already shrinking, leading analysts to wonder whether Japan will become the first major market to see a decline in personal computer use some 25 years after it revolutionized household electronics — and whether this could be the picture of things to come in other countries.
(…)
The industry is responding in two other ways: reminding detractors that computers are still essential in linking the digital universe and releasing several laptops priced below $300 this holiday shopping season. (…) Recent desktop PCs look more like audiovisual equipment — or even colorful art objects — than computers. Sony Corp.’s desktop computers have folded up to become clocks, and its latest version even hangs on the wall.“
The author explains that by two reasons. On the one hand the fact that PC have less added value than other devices: a bigger TV is more obviously relevant as a nice output system, a mobile phone allows mobile consumption. On the other hand, it’s because “50 percent of Japanese send e-mail and browse the Internet from their mobile phones”. A third reason is also that japanese do not really work at home.
Why do I blog this? lots of relevant stuff there, but one should be careful to draw parallels between japan and other countries. The mobile phone usage (and infrastructure) is SO different that the situation is not comparable.
Anyway, I also find interesting this idea that PC (as motors in the past) are now folded up in other devices (clocks, displays)… as if computation was meant to go “in the background”, the added value lying in the services provided by the devices, not the machine itself.
November 5th, 2007 at 11:51 am
Your conclusions converges on the ubiquitous computing concepts pioneered by the Xerox Parc. In the nineties the parallel was already drawn between how electric engines were first big central things to which everything else connected (take a look at all the mechanical belt and shafts transmission gear in old manufactures) whereas they are now ubiquitous commodities.
The case of Japan is insular in many ways. The long commutes, the cramped spaces at home, the linguistic isolation and the peculiar story of Imode all add up to produce peculiar developments. The trends are interesting to observe and do point to some developments relevant to the other markets, but as you note they should not be transposed without precautions.
November 5th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
This also relates to the book I’m currently reading from Nicholas G Carr naming Does IT Matter. Here’s a short description of the article that has been the starting point of his book:In this article, published in the May 2003 edition of the Harvard Business Review, I examine the evolution of information technology in business and show that it follows a pattern strikingly similar to that of earlier technologies like railroads and electric power. For a brief period, as they are being built into the infrastructure of commerce, these “infrastructural technologies,” as I call them, open opportunities for forward-looking companies to gain strong competitive advantages. But as their availability increases and their cost decreases - as they become ubiquitous - they become commodity inputs. From a strategic standpoint, they become invisible; they no longer matter.
November 8th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
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