The Macbook air showed that the whole computer industry functions around one factor: upload speed. Follow me a bit here.

What do you do with your computer? You probably work a lot, writing email, juggling spreadsheets and word documents, browsing facebook wallstreetjournal.com. Then there is your personal space made of conversations, websites, but also pictures, videos or music. That is why you call it a personal computer after all.

Back in 1995, Microsoft got really annoyed by Netscape when the Redmond giant realized that the web browser was set to become an operating system in itself. To use Gmail or Writely (an online equivalent of  Word, now bought by Google) all you need is a browser, and you don’t care if it runs on top of Microsoft, Linux or Apple software.

So it is not interesting to fight on this ground. It is a lost war. What the operating system makers need to do is to focus on two things: what people do not want to upload, and what people can not upload. Why? Because it is everything that happens outside of the web browser, and in that sense it is where you can make a difference, you can separate yourself from the pack.

One company seems to have understood that: Apple. What do you get out of the box if you buy a mac? A web browser (Safari) but no office suite. You go online or download the free Neo Office for that. Then you get tools to manage your digital assets (iTunes for music, iPhoto, iMovies, etc…), i.e. these things you can not upload because of network limitations.

And the mac will also take care of the stuff you do not want to share because they are too personal, you have encryption (Filevault) and automatic backups (Time Machine). That is what you call focusing on users needs.

Now there is a next step coming. Uploads are getting easier with bandwidths widening slowly. More of the things you had to do on your computer (like edit a picture or a video) are moving online. Ask Rodrigo of vpod.tv for a demo of their next product and you will be blown away. You can edit video, create transitions, add overlays of information, all online and in real time. Flabbergasting. Imovies and Photoshop are now coming to the browser.

The tasks we could not do online because of technological limitations will soon be available as web pages. A next paradigm is coming, and again, who gets ready for that? The macbook Air! It is a lightweight terminal with reasonable performance (it runs a web browser very well) and a small 60GB hard drive (about half the size of what you get on the cheapest PC).

This is the computer for the next evolution, when everything you do is online, and the personal computer has to become a light, reliable, safe, autonomous and friendly terminal able to connect to the web and run a browser. Apple is getting in position to reign on that market, taking the lead in almost every dimension that matters (interface, size, security, communication). That is why you should buy Apple stocks.

And the reason not to buy these stocks? The fact that this company loses 50% of its value if Steve Jobs has a car accident tomorrow. Who said investment was a gimmie ;)

Gartner predicts that by 2011, “at least 80% of commercial software will contain open source code“.

As software applications get more powerful with time, they also share an increasing number of capabilities (think of login, profile edition or tabbed navigation for a web app). With time, open source usually ends up doing these basic tasks better than commercial product, simply because more people end up putting their brain power on the problem with the open model. Which probably explains why open source software ends up taking care of the fundamental layers of commercial products.

That is the question I faced this morning during an interview (audio archive here) at the Swiss national radio (RSR) after Microsoft announced is was giving away free software to the students of Lausanne’s engineering school. My answer: Yes and No, and it’s getting better.

YES we are slaves, because inside many organizations you get a PC with windows installed whether you like it or not.

NO we are not slaves, because nobody forbids you to buy a mac or get a Dell with Ubuntu, you can use Open Office instead of Word and Excel, and please get Firefox.

II’S GETTING BETTER because we now have more credible options than ever (thanks in part to Mark Shuttleworth’s work on Ubuntu - a linux version that your grandmother can use, and to mac OSX), and because we are spending the majority of our time inside a browser, i.e. an operating system independent environment.

This debate - who a few years back used to make people prone to irrationality ^ - seems to be less important now. What are your thoughts?

I am not that much involved in development anymore, but here is an interesting comparison between three of the most used Internet technologies you can choose from when you want to launch a service on the web.

I am happy to have a few facts to move behind the war of religions that usually float around these decisions.

Jon Udell says out loud what many of us experience while working with computers:

Computers multitask way better than people can. As we perform the intellectual work that powers the information economy, our ability to achieve focus and flow is constantly challenged by distraction and interruption.
The paradox, of course, is that interruptions are vital, too

Link

Distraction is a huge problem. I noticed I am getting less and less productive because of interruptions, so I:
• don’t leave my email open all the time. I check it – for 5-10 minutes sessions – every 2-3 hours or so.
• shut down instant messaging when I need to focus on something.
• use SpiritedAway to automatically hide inactive windows

I believe this is a key issue for the future of computing, making our applications cope with the reality of our brains. Computers should better reproduce our offline work environments.

Google will pay Dell to pre-install its software. It’s good to be consumer’s starting point. It might actually be one of the biggest assets you can have as it allows to reach users before they step into the web jungle.

If I couldn’t see a business model for Netvibes – one of these companies that wants to be your first step – and now I will call Tariq to see if it’s not too late to invest ;-)

After fighting for space on our desktops, start menus, quick launch bars, notification areas, docks, and toolbars, software vendors are now focusing on our browser’s status bar!

With Google Notebook joining coComment, Performancing and Greasemonkey, mine is turning into a Christmas tree ;-)

The Economist is discussing the model of open source, and argues “the most important thing holding back the open-source model is itself”. Interesting reading

open source is starting to look much less like a curiosity of digital culture and more like an enterprise, with its own risks and rewards.

Link (via hugh)

Le dernier buzz-word qui a vu le jour autour de la frénésie Web 2.0 est “systèmes de networking de troisième génération”, comme l’atteste cet article de Wade Roush. Au-dela du côté 3ème génération, cet article est intéressant car il insiste sur un point important des social software: la capacité de manipuler du contenu généré par les utilisateurs.

“We’ve listened to our user base very closely, and we’re also paying attention to what the competition is doing, and we’ve formulated a new strategy that is really about personal media,” says Jeff Roberto, a marketing manager at Friendster. For example, users can now create blogs, control the appearance of their profiles, upload up to 50 photos, watch slide shows of the photos most recently uploaded by their friends, post classified ads that link back to their profiles, and share audio and video files stored on their PCs using peer-to-peer technology provided by Grouper.

“The uptake we’ve seen has been incredible,” Friendster CEO Taek Kwon said in October, about a month after the new features were introduced. “We’ve seen substantial increases in media being uploaded, profiles being customized, and people posting classifieds.”

L’article parle également d’un nouveau venu, iMeem qui met toutes ces idées en pratique en utilisant un modèle intéressant:

iMeem hopes to attract members to by building all their activities not around a virtual representation of their social network, but around instant messaging technology.

That’s exactly how iMeem works. A downloadable application similar to Yahoo Instant Messenger or MSN Messenger, iMeem is built around a buddy-list window that shows a user which of her friends are online. From that window, she can send and receive instant messages, join group chats, keep a blog, and share photos, videos, podcasts, playlists, and the like with other users using a peer-to-peer system related to the technology behind the original Napster.

Aggregating all of these functions into one program sounds like a recipe for information overload. But Caldwell believes that iMeem users will act as each others’ media critics, perhaps bringing real effectiveness to the much-heralded idea of “collaborative filtering.” “There’s too much stuff out there,” Caldwell says. “Too much data, too much content, too many blogs. Collaborative filtering is one of the most important things that’s happened on the Web over the past couple of years. It’s holding back the tide of overstimulation.”

iMeem me rappelle un software de première génération appelé Huminity que j’avais testé il y a longtemps. L’idée de filtrage collaboratif est bonne, mais il reste encore � prouver qu’elle marche.

A new buzzword around here (Web2.0 spin): “third generation of social-networking systems” as attested by this TR article by Wade Roush. Instead than focusing on this ‘3rd’ thing, the interesting point of this article is that it highlights the new important feature of social software: the ability to manipulate user-generated content:

“We’ve listened to our user base very closely, and we’re also paying attention to what the competition is doing, and we’ve formulated a new strategy that is really about personal media,” says Jeff Roberto, a marketing manager at Friendster. For example, users can now create blogs, control the appearance of their profiles, upload up to 50 photos, watch slide shows of the photos most recently uploaded by their friends, post classified ads that link back to their profiles, and share audio and video files stored on their PCs using peer-to-peer technology provided by Grouper.

“The uptake we’ve seen has been incredible,” Friendster CEO Taek Kwon said in October, about a month after the new features were introduced. “We’ve seen substantial increases in media being uploaded, profiles being customized, and people posting classifieds.”

It also talks about a new player: iMeem who puts this idea into practice, using an interesting model:

iMeem hopes to attract members to by building all their activities not around a virtual representation of their social network, but around instant messaging technology.

That’s exactly how iMeem works. A downloadable application similar to Yahoo Instant Messenger or MSN Messenger, iMeem is built around a buddy-list window that shows a user which of her friends are online. From that window, she can send and receive instant messages, join group chats, keep a blog, and share photos, videos, podcasts, playlists, and the like with other users using a peer-to-peer system related to the technology behind the original Napster.

Aggregating all of these functions into one program sounds like a recipe for information overload. But Caldwell believes that iMeem users will act as each others’ media critics, perhaps bringing real effectiveness to the much-heralded idea of “collaborative filtering.” “There’s too much stuff out there,” Caldwell says. “Too much data, too much content, too many blogs. Collaborative filtering is one of the most important things that’s happened on the Web over the past couple of years. It’s holding back the tide of overstimulation.”

This ‘iMeem’ makes me think of a 1st generation social software called Huminity I tested long time ago mixed with this user-generated content trend. I like the ‘collaborative filtering’ feature but I am wondering how it would work.