Here at Reboot Matt Jones just showed the newest version of Dopplr, the straightforward travel tracking, serendipity provoking service he launched with a couple of buddies. When discussing the eternal feature vs application debate any web entrepreneur is facing, he shared his vision that “Dopplr is a feature of a very large application, the Internet”.

For a totally inexplicable reason this made me think of the following: the lifespan of a newly launched online application knows 3 stages:
• the first mover stage, where the product is the only one to do something. Think Blogger in 1999, Digg in 2004, coComment in 2006, Twitter or Dopplr in 2007. At that stage it gathers all the early adopters crowd and builds a strategic advantage.
• the clone stage, where similar services start showing up all around the web. It used to take months before the clones would show up, but these days with 1) the increasing simplicity of the new services 2) the increasing maturity of technologies, it seems clones need less and less time to show up. After all Assaf took his domain name 4 hours after Scoble put coComment in orbit, and released co.mments in only a few weeks. These day Twitter clones were out 5-7 days after the father of crapublication came out.
• the free for all stage, where doing what a company does is as hard as getting a host and unzipping an open source package. This is what happened to Blogger the day Wordpress came out. Same for Digg. Competing with them is as easy as installing the free Pligg. That’s the ultimate stage, when what a company does can basically be replicated by anybody in a few minutes.
A few thoughts:
• companies are going through this cycle faster and faster. Competition is getting more and more intense.
• success factors are the brand, the user interface, the design, and the number of users joining the community.
• I believe there is room for much more than one winner. Even more with localization. After all, even Google can not rule all the markets on the planet (see South Korea)
• technology’s role has changed. It is a commodity now. Its role is simply (!) to NOT get in the way of users. Ideally it should go unnoticed.