“Ah la crise”, we hear so much about it. I get some questions about it during most interviews: “will you talk about the crisis at Lift09?” Not really, the conference is looking at society 2-3 years down the road, the crisis should be over by then right?

Well, that’s if it ever existed. Is this a crisis or a transition? The numbers that make the news (stocks, commercial balances, etc) are pretty bad, but do they really give us the whole picture?

Yes, the banks are under attack, and deservedly so. Their model is based on a world that does not exist anymore. Like the music industry before, banks have been refusing innovation, sitting on their assets without noticing that society was changing faster than ever. Customers have changed (billionaires now wear sneakers, use Skype and live on the road, while private banks still treat their clients as if they were retired oil moguls), employees have changed, needs have evolved (and customers didn’t wait for the banks to address them, see Loanland or Kiva). There is a price for arrogance (it cuts you from your clients), lack of agility (you can’t follow change), heritage (having an history can be bad for you. Ex: Nokia could never have invented the iPhone). A price to pay for all those things banks seem to have been specializing into recently.

^{Wired: Can innovation - and greentech? - save the world’s economy?}

Then there is unfairness. Switzerland has been making billions off money subtracted from other countries tax authorities. Now the US (other countries will follow) are trying to put an end to that. How sustainable can a business model abusing other countries be in a global world? What leverage do the Swiss have, with their banks having offices all around the world, their existence depending on those same countries that now pressure them? I am not getting into the philosophical debate of whether tax escape is good or bad, I am just saying: how long can you disrespect other countries rules in a global world?

Allow for a short parenthesis here: most Swiss are very pragmatic and understand this is unfair. See for example this interview from yesterday’s night news, the question from the national television’s journalist is “you are subtracting billions from other countries who need them to face the crisis, this money is in your safes, do you think it is normal?”. So think twice before you generalize to “the Swiss”. And don’t believe they are the only ones doing this. Your bank has a branch in the Bahamas too, and it is not only for the nice beaches. Bank of America, Crédit Lyonnais, HSBC, Chase Manhattan, Banco de Santander, they are all attracted by the “country’s progressive legislation and regulatory structure”. And have offices in Jersey, Monaco, Singapore and other tax havens.

So those living their formerly-high-life along those lines are in trouble, and nobody should rejoice because their struggles will impact all of us.

But on the other side there are the smaller companies, the ones whose numbers don’t make the news, those who are based on more simple and human values. The “real economy”. This part of the world seems to be doing much better. This past week, I received at least 10 job openings from start ups or mid-sized companies, all saying they urgently need a developer, a business manager, or an executive. I have never seen the people around me (mostly entrepreneurs and independents) that busy! Lift will be full again (676 participants for 700 seats as I write this) but Tom Hume had to cancel because his company won a huge contract,  Matt O’Neil (who started his company at Lift06) is currently too busy to attend, Scott Smith is stuck with client work back in the US and asked us to transfer his ticket. It seems smaller companies, those who adapted quickly to the new world because they, in part, created it, those companies are striving, acquiring customers all around the world, working on new and exciting projects, proposing changes and progress to an otherwise struggling society. Bruno Giussani told me that this year’s TED was buzzing with more energy and projects than ever, I hear 3GSM was a total blast, and it is precisely the feeling I am getting from my immediate surroundings. Exciting times!

I understand we all have a partial view of the world, and that I am no exception. I also understand these are weak signals, not backed by scientific numbers, which might not weight much in the face of reimbursing thousands of billions of screw ups. But I am asking a question: is this really the sub primes, or are we facing a peak of inadequacy between large companies and the world they live in? Is this a crisis, or a transition to a new world?

Anybody who has been a teenager knows that transitions can be painful. But they normally take you to a next level, a much more interesting one. Wait and see ;)

This entry was posted on Saturday, February 21st, 2009 at 1:45 pm and is filed under economy, society. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.