Quite an unexpected start to the second day of the World Women’s Forum with a presentation by Robert Kaplan, National Correspondent for the Atlantic Monthly. Robert explained why and how women will play a greater role in a military world transitioning from a physical, old boys club world focused on fighting, to a de-materialized, more diverse, more technological force focused on relief efforts. Running notes from the session:

The Iraq war will fast forward the arrival of Asia on the global war scene. European budgets are starved. In a few months India will have the third largest navy in the world (after USA and China, 4 times the size of the British Army). The pacific ocean won’t be an American lake anymore, the US navy has 279 ships (down from 600).

India and China will show their power through air and sea. Sea is crucial because 90% of all commerce travels on the oceans. China is trying hard to avoid too much transportation (by building pipelines and deep sea ports around the globe, in Pakistan or Cambodia for example) but sea transport remains an issue (see the growing problems with pirates).

So we have a big political shift underway, and the nature of armies is changing. Navy and air force are taking the center stage. War has also changed on the ground. There is no such thing as a front line anymore. You are as exposed in the front or in the back, and therefore women - traditionally more involved in the rear lines - are as exposed as men.

Navy and air force are, at least in the western world, the two sectors where we have the largest number of women. A fair percentage of drone pilots are women. War is becoming increasingly electronic, less and less physical (”de-physicalization of war”), and therefore more and more women are getting involved. One fifth of submarine crews are women in the US. One third of the crew of some destroyers (which are combat platforms!) are women. Even the American elite troops - the green berets - are seriously considering incorporating women in their ranks.

Does that mean armies are getting more human, more prone to discussion and compromise? Not necessarily. “The women that I have met in combat positions tend to be the same than men, coming from military families, with conservative backgrounds, married to a soldier. Don’t forget that armies are no longer representative of society. Soldiers are now a semi-isolated, self selected elite inside a nation“.

The 21st century will be the first century where it will be common to have women generals and admirals. And women prisoners. As they get more exposed to combat this is something we have to expect and prepare for.

The mission of the armies is evolving. One key word: fluidity. A crisis merges into another one, with huge humanitarian impact. As the population moves to cities disasters will have a greater and more dramatic impact than ever. And relief efforts will be militarized. Armies will be deeply involved in humanitarian work, and therefore require more women.

So despite the fact they are super conservative organizations, armies will follow the evolution of civil society and change. Slowly but they will change. It took 40 years to incorporate women in the American army.

Question from the audience: Are armies recruiting more women because they don’t have enough men signing up?
Answer: Enlistments are going great in the US. It’s terrible to say but the economic turmoil has a positive effect on recruitment, forcing some people to sign up to make a living.

Q:  One of the impact of the presence of women in armies is a strong increase in the number of sex scandals!
A: Yes. There will be scandals. The army has to transition away from a locker room ambiance, from an old boys club to a more diverse and open organization. Scandals are part of the solution as they will force the change.

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